Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
HellRaisersloss 0:2series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Bramewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Brame
Earth Spiritoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 18 games
Grimstroke
SsaSpartan · 15 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 13 games
Oracleoften banned
SsaSpartan · 11 games
Clockwerksignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 10 games
Dark Seersignature
SkyLark · 10 games
Phoenixsignature
SsaSpartan · 10 games
Puckoften banned
W1sh- · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
407 picks · 991 bans
Void Spirit
364 picks · 532 bans
Mars
349 picks · 570 bans
Death Prophet
340 picks · 706 bans
Grimstroke
338 picks · 332 bans
Lion
314 picks · 172 bans
Tusk
305 picks · 228 bans
Earth Spirit
271 picks · 283 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 59%
Hero pool strength52% Brame
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total62% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:16
HellRaisers 62%Brame 38%
The model gave 62% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Brame in 34:27.
Game 2prediction missed31:29
HellRaisers 62%Brame 38%
The model gave 62% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Brame in 56:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 62%
Series resultBrame 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2