Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 2:1series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 2:1
PuckChamploss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Dark Seeroften banned
Mastermind · 2 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Bor@nija · 2 games
Dark Willow
Bor@nija · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
Mirana
Mastermind · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
Sand King
Bor@nija · 1 game
Slardaroften banned
Mastermind · 1 game
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
407 picks · 990 bans
Void Spirit
366 picks · 530 bans
Mars
350 picks · 570 bans
Death Prophet
341 picks · 708 bans
Grimstroke
337 picks · 332 bans
Lion
315 picks · 172 bans
Tusk
305 picks · 228 bans
Earth Spirit
270 picks · 283 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 54%
Hero pool strength57% PuckChamp
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total63% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:16
Level UP 37%PuckChamp 63%
The model gave 63% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 17:34.
Game 2prediction correct40:39
Level UP 37%PuckChamp 63%
The model gave 63% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 58:42.
Game 3prediction correct31:11
Level UP 37%PuckChamp 63%
The model gave 63% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 25:54.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 63%
Series resultLevel UP 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3