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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
496 Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Army Geniusesloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

496 Gaming

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
NARMAN · 8 games
75%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
Bombi · 7 games
43%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
Red · 5 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Red · 4 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Red · 4 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Bombi · 3 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
NARMAN · 3 games
33%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Bombi · 2 games
50%

Army Geniuses

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Lym- · 17 games
71%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
MamangDaya · 7 games
43%
Pugna
Pugnaoften banned
woMy · 7 games
14%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
woMy · 7 games
57%
Mirana
Mirana
Lym- · 6 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
60%
Riki
Rikioften banned
db- · 5 games
60%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
MamangDaya · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
407 picks · 990 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
366 picks · 530 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
350 picks · 570 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
341 picks · 708 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
337 picks · 332 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
315 picks · 172 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
305 picks · 228 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
270 picks · 283 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% 496 Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% 496 Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:45
496 Gaming 54%Army Geniuses 46%
The model gave 54% on 496 Gaming — the game was taken by Army Geniuses in 42:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phoenix
PhoenixBombi
51% · 110 games50% · 42 games
Juggernautdb-
Juggernaut
42% · 15 games
ViperMamangDaya
Viper
58% · 15 games
Dragon KnightwoMy
Dragon Knight
48% · 38 games
MiranaLym-
Mirana
Game 2prediction correct27:13
496 Gaming 54%Army Geniuses 46%
The model gave 54% on 496 Gaming — the game was taken by 496 Gaming in 21:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phoenix
PhoenixBombi
53% · 96 games50% · 42 games
Juggernautdb-
Juggernaut
50% · 10 games
RikiMamangDaya
Riki
41% · 13 games
Dark SeerwoMy
Dark Seer
46% · 31 game
TuskLym-
Tusk
Game 3prediction correct29:22
496 Gaming 54%Army Geniuses 46%
The model gave 54% on 496 Gaming — the game was taken by 496 Gaming in 37:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phoenix
PhoenixBombi
51% · 68 gameslittle data
HuskarMamangDaya
Huskar
42% · 15 games
Invokerdb-
Invoker
58% · 15 games
Dragon KnightwoMy
Dragon Knight
48% · 38 games
MiranaLym-
Mirana
Model check result
Model favorite496 Gaming · 50%
Series result496 Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3