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i-League 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Asterloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Ori · 19 games
58%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 17 games
88%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ELeVeN · 16 games
69%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 15 games
73%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 14 games
57%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Dy · 12 games
75%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 12 games
58%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Dy · 11 games
91%

Team Aster

Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
LaNm · 18 games
61%
Puck
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 17 games
65%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 14 games
64%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
LaNm · 13 games
54%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
White丶Album · 13 games
69%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
LaNm · 11 games
73%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Monet · 11 games
45%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Monet · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
407 picks · 989 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
368 picks · 529 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
351 picks · 570 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
340 picks · 708 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
335 picks · 333 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
313 picks · 172 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
305 picks · 228 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
270 picks · 283 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 57%
Hero pool strength51% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total56% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:6
Vici Gaming 49%Team Aster 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 31:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendOri
53% · 29 games41% · 9 games
Faceless VoidMonet
Faceless Void
Spectre
Spectrepoyoyo
58% · 25 games47% · 57 games
Storm SpiritWhite丶Album
Storm Spirit
Beastmaster
BeastmasterELeVeN
60% · 116 games46% · 31 game
Legion CommanderXxs
Legion Commander
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPyw
52% · 69 games41% · 72 games
GrimstrokeBoBoKa
Grimstroke
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorDy
49% · 11 games46% · 81 game
Nyx AssassinLaNm
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct2:10
Vici Gaming 48%Team Aster 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Team Aster in 30:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherELeVeN
67% · 5 games45% · 68 games
MorphlingMonet
Morphling
Juggernaut
Juggernautpoyoyo
54% · 87 games51% · 98 games
TidehunterXxs
Tidehunter
Death Prophet
Death ProphetOri
52% · 119 games52% · 35 games
RazorWhite丶Album
Razor
Grimstroke
GrimstrokePyw
50% · 132 games42% · 127 games
LionBoBoKa
Lion
Elder Titan
Elder TitanDy
52% · 70 games49% · 85 games
AbaddonLaNm
Abaddon
Game 3prediction missed20:7
Vici Gaming 48%Team Aster 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Aster — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 27:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Broodmother
BroodmotherELeVeN
44% · 13 games45% · 7 games
BristlebackXxs
Bristleback
Spectre
Spectrepoyoyo
61% · 26 games58% · 39 games
Troll WarlordMonet
Troll Warlord
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritOri
40% · 70 games52% · 132 games
PuckWhite丶Album
Puck
Lion
LionPyw
46% · 159 games49% · 67 games
SnapfireBoBoKa
Snapfire
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorDy
53% · 26 games57% · 49 games
Elder TitanLaNm
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 56%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3