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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Evil Geniuseswin 2:0
series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:0
simply TOOBASEDloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Evil Geniuses

Mars
Marssignature
Tavo · 10 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Kingrd · 6 games
83%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
4dr · 6 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
KJ · 5 games
60%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
KJ · 5 games
40%
Puck
Puckoften banned
4dr · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
Thiolicor · 5 games
40%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
KJ · 5 games
80%

simply TOOBASED

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
407 picks · 986 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
370 picks · 530 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
351 picks · 571 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
338 picks · 706 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
335 picks · 335 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
311 picks · 171 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
304 picks · 227 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
269 picks · 282 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 44%
Hero pool strength56% Evil Geniuses
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total77% Evil Geniuses
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed4:19
Evil Geniuses 77%simply TOOBASED 23%
The model gave 77% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 25:26.
Game 2prediction missed13:27
Evil Geniuses 77%simply TOOBASED 23%
The model gave 77% on Evil Geniuses — the game was taken by simply TOOBASED in 25:10.
Model check result
Model favoriteEvil Geniuses · 77%
Series resultEvil Geniuses 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2