ESL Challenger China · BO3
result vs predictionTThrivingloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yakult Brothers.Tearlamentswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thriving
Luna
RA1NCLOUD · 1 game
Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments
Earth Spirit
Echo · 5 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
niu · 4 games
Faceless Void
TK · 4 games
Tidehunteroften banned
niu · 4 games
Axeoften banned
niu · 3 games
Clinkzoften banned
lou · 3 games
Disruptor
zzq · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
Echo · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
572 picks · 919 bans
Tusk
537 picks · 406 bans
Centaur Warrunner
488 picks · 627 bans
Dragon Knight
488 picks · 656 bans
Shadow Demon
419 picks · 902 bans
Ember Spirit
383 picks · 623 bans
Mars
371 picks · 516 bans
Warlock
363 picks · 221 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 44%
Hero pool strength61% Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct6:26
Thriving 33%Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments 67%
The model gave 67% on Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments in 35:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerRA1NCLOUD
Morphlinglou
53% · 15 games
Tidehunterniu
little data
Earth SpiritEcho
little data
Chenzzq
little data
Faceless VoidTK
Game 2prediction correct16:37
Thriving 36%Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments 64%
The model gave 64% on Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments in 41:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightRA1NCLOUD
Weaverlou
55% · 144 games
PuckEcho
41% · 114 games
Marsniu
45% · 125 games
Warlockzzq
71% · 17 games
Faceless VoidTK
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers.Tearlaments · 76%
Series resultYakult Brothers.Tearlaments 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2