?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Sparking Arrow Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 26 games
81%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 25 games
72%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 18 games
61%
Tusk
Tusksignature
XinQ · 18 games
72%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
NothingToSay · 17 games
59%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 16 games
56%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 16 games
75%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Ame · 16 games
81%

Sparking Arrow Gaming

Elder Titan
Elder Titan
XCJ · 11 games
55%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Dstones · 7 games
43%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
September · 7 games
29%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
XCJ · 6 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Son GoKu · 6 games
33%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
XCJ · 5 games
40%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Son GoKu · 5 games
40%
Mirana
Mirana
September · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
410 picks · 984 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
375 picks · 531 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
351 picks · 567 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
342 picks · 711 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
333 picks · 335 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
309 picks · 170 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
305 picks · 227 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
268 picks · 283 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 28%
Hero pool strength62% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:9
LGD Gaming 76%Sparking Arrow Gaming 24%
The model gave 76% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 21:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidAme
43% · 6 games49% · 63 games
TidehunterSon GoKu
Tidehunter
Magnus
MagnusNothingToSay
63% · 4 games50% · 14 games
Templar Assassin7e
Templar Assassin
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderFaith_bian
52% · 32 games59% · 46 games
MiranaSeptember
Mirana
Enchantress
Enchantressy`
45% · 58 games45% · 52 games
Elder TitanXCJ
Elder Titan
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeXinQ
52% · 75 games
Game 2prediction correct25:9
LGD Gaming 74%Sparking Arrow Gaming 26%
The model gave 74% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 26:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenAme
47% · 16 games57% · 23 games
Razor7e
Razor
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetFaith_bian
59% · 67 games41% · 80 games
Death ProphetSon GoKu
Death Prophet
Tiny
TinyNothingToSay
48% · 60 games41% · 104 games
GrimstrokeXCJ
Grimstroke
Pangolier
PangolierXinQ
54% · 106 games58% · 55 games
Nyx AssassinSeptember
Nyx Assassin
Warlock
Warlocky`
52% · 13 games
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 89%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2