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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
LBZSwin 2:1
series probability
33%67%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Phoenix Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LBZS

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
CatYou · 15 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
CatYou · 10 games
40%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
xiaofu · 6 games
17%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
CatYou · 6 games
33%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
MS · 6 games
17%
Undying
Undying
xiaofu · 6 games
50%
Ursa
Ursasignature
MS · 6 games
67%
Lion
Lion
CatYou · 5 games
40%

Phoenix Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Xwy · 7 games
86%
Lion
Lion
pLAnet · 7 games
57%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Molasses · 7 games
29%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Xwy · 7 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Xwy · 6 games
33%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
zzq · 6 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
zzq · 6 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
pLAnet · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
409 picks · 981 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
375 picks · 531 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
348 picks · 566 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
342 picks · 709 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
332 picks · 334 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
308 picks · 169 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
302 picks · 225 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
268 picks · 282 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 65%
Hero pool strength53% Phoenix Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% Phoenix Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:33
LBZS 40%Phoenix Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by LBZS in 47:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerFonte
50% · 14 games49% · 53 games
Ursashiro
Ursa
Mars
MarsIrving
46% · 87 games46% · 47 games
Queen of PainXwy
Queen of Pain
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionxiaofu
44% · 19 games57% · 43 games
Dark WillowpLAnet
Dark Willow
Tusk
TuskCatYou
49% · 68 games57% · 45 games
Enchantresszzq
Enchantress
Game 2prediction correct23:33
LBZS 40%Phoenix Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by Phoenix Gaming in 34:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkFonte
43% · 6 games54% · 28 games
Terrorbladeshiro
Terrorblade
Mars
MarsIrving
47% · 107 games51% · 69 games
TinyXwy
Tiny
Tusk
TuskCatYou
51% · 59 games57% · 111 games
PhoenixpLAnet
Phoenix
Grimstroke
Grimstrokexiaofu
42% · 96 games53% · 60 games
Clockwerkzzq
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed41:24
LBZS 40%Phoenix Gaming 60%
The model gave 60% on Phoenix Gaming — the game was taken by LBZS in 52:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomFonte
42% · 24 games45% · 41 game
Ursashiro
Ursa
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderIrving
47% · 39 games60% · 43 games
TinyXwy
Tiny
Snapfire
Snapfirexiaofu
54% · 50 games47% · 71 game
PhoenixpLAnet
Phoenix
Lion
LionCatYou
49% · 81 game53% · 39 games
Clockwerkzzq
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoritePhoenix Gaming · 67%
Series resultLBZS 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3