Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
5ManMidasloss 0:2series probability
17%83%
probability at match start · final 0:2
D2 Hustlerswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
5ManMidas
No games played over 6 months.
D2 Hustlers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
409 picks · 980 bans
Void Spirit
375 picks · 529 bans
Mars
348 picks · 564 bans
Death Prophet
342 picks · 709 bans
Grimstroke
332 picks · 333 bans
Lion
308 picks · 169 bans
Tusk
302 picks · 224 bans
Earth Spirit
268 picks · 282 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)24% vs 82%
Hero pool strength50% 5ManMidas
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total83% D2 Hustlers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct15:31
5ManMidas 17%D2 Hustlers 83%
The model gave 83% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers in 54:07.
Game 2prediction correct33:14
5ManMidas 17%D2 Hustlers 83%
The model gave 83% on D2 Hustlers — the game was taken by D2 Hustlers in 33:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteD2 Hustlers · 83%
Series resultD2 Hustlers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2