Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Wind and Rainloss 1:2series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team DogChampwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wind and Rain
Grimstrokeoften banned
yol · 2 games
Tusk
Steelborco · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Sword · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Sword · 1 game
Oracleoften banned
yol · 1 game
Tidehunteroften banned
Sword · 1 game
Timbersawoften banned
Sword · 1 game
Warlock
yol · 1 game
Team DogChamp
Keeper of the Lightsignature
yarintheslayer · 7 games
Marssignature
lukiluki · 6 games
Pucksignature
Bloody Nine · 6 games
Rubick
yarintheslayer · 5 games
Undying
Bloody Nine · 4 games
Enchantressoften banned
Bloody Nine · 3 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
lukiluki · 3 games
Pangolieroften banned
lukiluki · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
408 picks · 976 bans
Void Spirit
375 picks · 529 bans
Mars
343 picks · 564 bans
Death Prophet
342 picks · 709 bans
Grimstroke
330 picks · 333 bans
Lion
308 picks · 167 bans
Tusk
302 picks · 224 bans
Earth Spirit
267 picks · 282 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 56%
Hero pool strength62% Team DogChamp
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total74% Team DogChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed42:29
Wind and Rain 35%Team DogChamp 65%
The model gave 65% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Wind and Rain in 46:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Centaur WarrunnerSword
Marslukiluki
Grimstrokeyol
Hoodwinkyarintheslayer
little data
SilencerBloody Nine
Game 2prediction correct8:27
Wind and Rain 38%Team DogChamp 62%
The model gave 62% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 29:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
PuckSword
Marslukiluki
Warlockyol
Witch DoctorBloody Nine
47% · 49 games
Rubickyarintheslayer
Game 3prediction correct15:33
Wind and Rain 34%Team DogChamp 66%
The model gave 66% on Team DogChamp — the game was taken by Team DogChamp in 36:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TimbersawSword
Keeper of the Lightyarintheslayer
Grimstrokeyol
Marslukiluki
46% · 48 games
OracleBloody Nine
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam DogChamp · 74%
Series resultTeam DogChamp 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3