ESL Challenger China · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 1:0series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Game Masterloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vici Gaming
Sand Kingsignature
Xm · 10 games
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 9 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 8 games
Jakirooften banned
Dy · 8 games
Pucksignature
Xm · 8 games
Ursaoften banned
lou · 8 games
Disruptor
Dy · 7 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 7 games
Game Master
Shadow Demonoften banned
Kaka · 3 games
Shadow Shaman
Kaka · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Monet · 2 games
Earth Spirit
7e · 2 games
Enchantress
Poloson · 2 games
Invokeroften banned
7e · 2 games
Magnus
JT- · 2 games
Marsoften banned
Poloson · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
571 picks · 919 bans
Tusk
537 picks · 406 bans
Centaur Warrunner
488 picks · 627 bans
Dragon Knight
488 picks · 655 bans
Shadow Demon
419 picks · 901 bans
Ember Spirit
382 picks · 623 bans
Mars
370 picks · 516 bans
Warlock
363 picks · 221 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 57%
Hero pool strength55% Game Master
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total80% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:11
Vici Gaming 66%Game Master 34%
The model gave 66% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 29:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muertashiro
LunaMonet
Ember SpiritXm
MarsJT-
Dark SeerFaith_bian
Earth Spirit7e
LargopLAnet
JakiroPoloson
Pugnay`
LionKaka
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 80%
Series resultVici Gaming 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1