Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Secretloss 0:2series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 0:2
OGwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Secret
Rubicksignature
YapzOr · 7 games
Tusksignature
YapzOr · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
zai · 6 games
Pangoliersignature
zai · 6 games
Pucksignature
Puppey · 6 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Nisha · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Puppey · 5 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 5 games
OG
Earth Spiritsignature
Saksa · 7 games
Alchemistoften banned
Ceb · 6 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Saksa · 6 games
Puckoften banned
Topson · 6 games
Rikisignature
Topson · 6 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
MidOne · 5 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Ceb · 5 games
Rubick
Saksa · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
408 picks · 974 bans
Void Spirit
375 picks · 528 bans
Death Prophet
342 picks · 709 bans
Mars
341 picks · 565 bans
Grimstroke
331 picks · 332 bans
Lion
307 picks · 167 bans
Tusk
303 picks · 224 bans
Earth Spirit
268 picks · 283 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 44%
Hero pool strength55% Team Secret
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% Team Secret
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed48:49
Team Secret 58%OG 42%
The model gave 58% on Team Secret — the game was taken by OG in 55:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
BloodseekerMATUMBAMAN
Drow RangerTopson
Ember SpiritNisha
Juggernautana
MiranaYapzOr
Dark SeerCeb
Marszai
ClockwerkSaksa
GrimstrokePuppey
Brewmastern0tail
Game 2prediction missed28:37
Team Secret 61%OG 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Secret — the game was taken by OG in 42:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
ZeusNisha
Phantom Lancerana
SlarkMATUMBAMAN
AlchemistCeb
PhoenixYapzOr
SnapfireTopson
Marszai
LionSaksa
WarlockPuppey
Dazzlen0tail
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Secret · 70%
Series resultOG 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2