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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Tundra Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Liquidwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Tundra Esports

Puck
Puckoften banned
Nine · 6 games
33%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Fata · 5 games
60%
Abaddon
Abaddon
33 · 4 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
33 · 4 games
25%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
Fata · 4 games
50%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
0%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
Skiter · 4 games
50%

Team Liquid

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Taiga · 19 games
47%
Puck
Pucksignature
miCKe · 18 games
61%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
iNSaNiA · 12 games
42%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
iNSaNiA · 11 games
55%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Taiga · 10 games
70%
Razor
Razorsignature
qojqva · 9 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Boxi · 9 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
miCKe · 9 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
407 picks · 976 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
374 picks · 531 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
344 picks · 712 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
340 picks · 564 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
332 picks · 333 bans
49%
Lion
Lion
307 picks · 167 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
302 picks · 225 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
269 picks · 283 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Team Liquid
Head-to-head2 – 1
Model total58% Team Liquid
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct2:21
Tundra Esports 43%Team Liquid 57%
The model gave 57% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 21:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckNine
44% · 115 games49% · 53 games
MorphlingSumaiL
Morphling
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerSkiter
50% · 14 games54% · 44 games
TinymiCKe
Tiny
Venomancer
VenomancerSneyking
43% · 6 games55% · 23 games
Slardarqojqva
Slardar
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFata
47% · 7 games54% · 36 games
SnapfireTaiga
Snapfire
Axe
Axe33
47% · 22 games75% · 8 games
WarlockiNSaNiA
Warlock
Game 2prediction missed35:24
Tundra Esports 46%Team Liquid 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 47:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSkiter
52% · 38 games50% · 77 games
MorphlingSumaiL
Morphling
Puck
PuckNine
53% · 200 games44% · 232 games
Void SpiritmiCKe
Void Spirit
Tidehunter
Tidehunter33
50% · 54 games46% · 28 games
Slardarqojqva
Slardar
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonSneyking
61% · 25 games49% · 32 games
LinaTaiga
Lina
Clockwerk
ClockwerkFata
54% · 59 games45% · 7 games
Winter WyverniNSaNiA
Winter Wyvern
Game 3prediction correct12:29
Tundra Esports 45%Team Liquid 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Liquid — the game was taken by Team Liquid in 28:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingSkiter
54% · 93 games50% · 4 games
Lone Druidqojqva
Lone Druid
Puck
PuckNine
49% · 151 game48% · 68 games
TinySumaiL
Tiny
Dark Seer
Dark Seer33
52% · 40 games46% · 205 games
MarsmiCKe
Mars
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSneyking
46% · 50 games52% · 112 games
TuskTaiga
Tusk
Oracle
OracleFata
54% · 91 game52% · 36 games
Ancient ApparitioniNSaNiA
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Liquid · 58%
Series resultTeam Liquid 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3