Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
PuckChamploss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hellbear Smasherswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Hellbear Smashers
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 21 game
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 18 games
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 16 games
Puckoften banned
Stormstormer · 16 games
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 14 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 13 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 12 games
Tidehuntersignature
MISERY · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
406 picks · 978 bans
Void Spirit
377 picks · 529 bans
Death Prophet
344 picks · 715 bans
Mars
341 picks · 563 bans
Grimstroke
332 picks · 334 bans
Lion
307 picks · 167 bans
Tusk
302 picks · 224 bans
Earth Spirit
271 picks · 283 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 59%
Hero pool strength61% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total52% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:24
PuckChamp 52%Hellbear Smashers 48%
The model gave 52% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 52:49.
Game 2prediction missed31:19
PuckChamp 52%Hellbear Smashers 48%
The model gave 52% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 28:59.
Game 3prediction missed31:9
PuckChamp 52%Hellbear Smashers 48%
The model gave 52% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by Hellbear Smashers in 34:37.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 52%
Series resultHellbear Smashers 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3