ESL Challenger China · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Refuserwin 1:0series probability
32%68%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Yakult Brothers.Tearlamentsloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Refuser
Bristleback
zeal · 1 game
Clinkzoften banned
poyoyo · 1 game
Dark Willow
Pyw · 1 game
Dawnbreaker
zeal · 1 game
Jakirooften banned
Dy · 1 game
Muerta
Pyw · 1 game
Slardaroften banned
Paparazi · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Paparazi · 1 game
Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments
Earth Spirit
Echo · 4 games
Faceless Void
TK · 4 games
Tidehunteroften banned
niu · 4 games
Axeoften banned
niu · 3 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
niu · 3 games
Clinkzoften banned
lou · 3 games
Disruptor
zzq · 3 games
Invokeroften banned
Echo · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
570 picks · 919 bans
Tusk
537 picks · 405 bans
Dragon Knight
488 picks · 654 bans
Centaur Warrunner
487 picks · 627 bans
Shadow Demon
419 picks · 899 bans
Ember Spirit
382 picks · 623 bans
Mars
369 picks · 516 bans
Warlock
363 picks · 220 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 50%
Hero pool strength63% Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:11
Team Refuser 38%Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments 62%
The model gave 62% on Yakult Brothers.Tearlaments — the game was taken by Team Refuser in 43:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kezpoyoyo
Terrorbladelou
Storm SpiritPaparazi
Centaur Warrunnerniu
Razorzeal
Earth SpiritEcho
MuertaPyw
LargoTK
Shadow ShamanDy
Enchantresszzq
Model check result
Model favoriteYakult Brothers.Tearlaments · 68%
Series resultTeam Refuser 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1