Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggwin 2:1series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Chicken Fightersloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ViKin.gg
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 19 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Aramis · 15 games
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 15 games
Pucksignature
BOOM · 14 games
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 12 games
Tusksignature
Aramis · 11 games
Juggernautsignature
Shad · 10 games
Lionsignature
Aramis · 10 games
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
406 picks · 969 bans
Void Spirit
374 picks · 529 bans
Death Prophet
345 picks · 711 bans
Mars
337 picks · 555 bans
Grimstroke
329 picks · 332 bans
Lion
300 picks · 164 bans
Tusk
298 picks · 220 bans
Earth Spirit
270 picks · 280 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)74% vs 59%
Hero pool strength57% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total77% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:7
ViKin.gg 77%Chicken Fighters 23%
The model gave 77% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 38:04.
Game 2prediction missed18:27
ViKin.gg 77%Chicken Fighters 23%
The model gave 77% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by Chicken Fighters in 42:27.
Game 3prediction correct46:34
ViKin.gg 77%Chicken Fighters 23%
The model gave 77% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 1:04:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 77%
Series resultViKin.gg 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3