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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Latam Defendersloss 1:2
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Crewmateswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Latam Defenders

Mirana
Mirana
Moonlight · 10 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
Moonlight · 9 games
56%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Valquiria · 7 games
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Valquiria · 6 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Aretes · 6 games
33%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Cucahook · 6 games
67%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aretes · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Valquiria · 5 games
20%

Crewmates

Abaddon
Abaddon
DFlash · 6 games
50%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
H1j4ck · 5 games
20%
Io
Iooften banned
FCR · 4 games
25%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 4 games
25%
Arc Warden
Arc Wardenoften banned
FCR · 3 games
0%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
100%
Puck
Puckoften banned
4nalog · 3 games
33%
Undying
Undying
DFlash · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
406 picks · 969 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
373 picks · 531 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
344 picks · 712 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
338 picks · 553 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
329 picks · 331 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
298 picks · 163 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
298 picks · 219 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
270 picks · 276 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 36%
Hero pool strength51% Latam Defenders
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total57% Latam Defenders
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:7
Latam Defenders 51%Crewmates 49%
The model gave 51% on Latam Defenders — the game was taken by Latam Defenders in 29:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerCucahook
45% · 63 games58% · 42 games
MedusaFCR
Medusa
Death Prophet
Death ProphetValquiria
51% · 94 games50% · 124 games
Void SpiritRayuur
Void Spirit
Lion
LionMoonlight
37% · 65 games59% · 43 games
Centaur WarrunnerH1j4ck
Centaur Warrunner
58% · 13 games
Winter WyvernDFlash
Winter Wyvern
Game 2prediction missed5:25
Latam Defenders 57%Crewmates 43%
The model gave 57% on Latam Defenders — the game was taken by Crewmates in 21:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautCucahook
63% · 45 games47% · 20 games
Templar AssassinRayuur
Templar Assassin
Death Prophet
Death ProphetValquiria
55% · 75 games50% · 18 games
BristlebackFCR
Bristleback
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerMoonlight
55% · 35 games38% · 48 games
TimbersawH1j4ck
Timbersaw
41% · 69 games
OracleDFlash
Oracle
Game 3prediction missed31:40
Latam Defenders 51%Crewmates 49%
The model gave 51% on Latam Defenders — the game was taken by Crewmates in 42:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaCucahook
42% · 48 games43% · 22 games
Storm SpiritRayuur
Storm Spirit
Broodmother
BroodmotherValquiria
little data64% · 17 games
Nature's ProphetFCR
Nature's Prophet
Clockwerk
ClockwerkMoonlight
50% · 48 games52% · 32 games
TimbersawH1j4ck
Timbersaw
58% · 25 games
OracleDFlash
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteLatam Defenders · 57%
Series resultCrewmates 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3