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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Winstrike Teamloss 0:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Natus Vincerewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Winstrike Team

Puck
Pucksignature
re1bl · 15 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
yamich · 13 games
62%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 13 games
54%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 11 games
73%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 11 games
55%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
dyrachyo · 9 games
67%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Panto · 9 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
re1bl · 8 games
50%

Natus Vincere

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
GeneRaL · 7 games
71%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RodjER · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 6 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
GeneRaL · 6 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 6 games
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 5 games
20%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
V-Tune · 5 games
60%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
RodjER · 5 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
406 picks · 967 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
373 picks · 531 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
345 picks · 712 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
337 picks · 553 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
329 picks · 331 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
297 picks · 163 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
297 picks · 219 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
270 picks · 277 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Natus Vincere
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct14:28
Winstrike Team 48%Natus Vincere 52%
The model gave 52% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 32:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlorddyrachyo
52% · 67 games52% · 116 games
Wraith KingV-Tune
Wraith King
Mars
Marsre1bl
41% · 116 games49% · 73 games
MiranaIceberg
Mirana
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnerchshrct
51% · 41 game49% · 31 game
AxeRAMZES666
Axe
Lion
Lionyamich
48% · 71 game54% · 67 games
EnchantressRodjER
Enchantress
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionPanto
54% · 15 games61% · 23 games
WarlockALWAYSWANNAFLY
Warlock
Game 2prediction correct18:28
Winstrike Team 50%Natus Vincere 50%
The model gave 50% on Natus Vincere — the game was taken by Natus Vincere in 36:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voiddyrachyo
43% · 19 games56% · 13 games
AxeRAMZES666
Axe
Batrider
Batriderre1bl
46% · 20 games52% · 26 games
DoomIceberg
Doom
Phoenix
Phoenixyamich
53% · 40 games48% · 45 games
GyrocopterV-Tune
Gyrocopter
Tusk
Tuskchshrct
48% · 59 games50% · 49 games
EnchantressRodjER
Enchantress
Snapfire
SnapfirePanto
48% · 49 games55% · 54 games
IoALWAYSWANNAFLY
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 51%
Series resultNatus Vincere 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2