EPL Masters I. Play-In · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Lynxwin 2:1series probability
72%28%
probability at match start · final 2:1
KKWloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Lynx
Underlordsignature
VladikTheHtiviy · 28 games
Phoenix
kreker · 27 games
Dark Willowsignature
QBFY · 26 games
Rubick
QBFY · 23 games
Hoodwink
QBFY · 21 game
Pangolieroften banned
VladikTheHtiviy · 20 games
Keeper of the Lightsignature
mellojul · 19 games
Techies
kreker · 16 games
KW
Hoodwink
lupsione · 2 games
Clockwerkoften banned
monodrama · 1 game
Kezoften banned
Retsu · 1 game
Spectreoften banned
Retsu · 1 game
Witch Doctor
monodrama · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
496 picks · 355 bans
Rubick
381 picks · 232 bans
Clockwerk
341 picks · 640 bans
Tiny
336 picks · 348 bans
Windranger
317 picks · 228 bans
Pangolier
296 picks · 395 bans
Bane
295 picks · 289 bans
Storm Spirit
285 picks · 315 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Team Lynx
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Team Lynx
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed56:38
Team Lynx 60%KW 40%
The model gave 60% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by KW in 59:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UnderlordVladikTheHtiviy
Lone DruidRetsu
Dark WillowQBFY
Clockwerkmonodrama
Tuskkreker
Game 2prediction correct50:34
Team Lynx 62%KW 38%
The model gave 62% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 49:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AxeVladikTheHtiviy
LinaRetsu
TechiesQBFY
Hoodwinklupsione
Omniknightkreker
Clockwerkmonodrama
Game 3prediction correct45:32
Team Lynx 63%KW 37%
The model gave 63% on Team Lynx — the game was taken by Team Lynx in 36:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AxeVladikTheHtiviy
NecrophosRetsu
Phoenixkreker
Hoodwinklupsione
Dark WillowQBFY
Clockwerkmonodrama
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Lynx · 72%
Series resultTeam Lynx 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3