Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:1series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Level UPloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 11 games
Oraclesignature
Miposhka · 9 games
Marssignature
Collapse · 8 games
Crystal Maiden
Miposhka · 7 games
Miranasignature
Mira · 7 games
Bloodseekersignature
Collapse · 6 games
Morphlingsignature
Yatoro · 6 games
Level UP
Dark Seeroften banned
Mastermind · 2 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Bor@nija · 2 games
Dark Willow
Bor@nija · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
Mirana
Mastermind · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
Sand King
Bor@nija · 1 game
Slardaroften banned
Mastermind · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
405 picks · 965 bans
Void Spirit
374 picks · 530 bans
Death Prophet
346 picks · 712 bans
Mars
336 picks · 550 bans
Grimstroke
325 picks · 328 bans
Tusk
297 picks · 219 bans
Lion
295 picks · 162 bans
Earth Spirit
271 picks · 277 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 57%
Hero pool strength63% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:30
Team Spirit 78%Level UP 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Level UP in 41:24.
Game 2prediction correct28:8
Team Spirit 78%Level UP 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 28:51.
Game 3prediction correct29:8
Team Spirit 78%Level UP 22%
The model gave 78% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 22:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 78%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3