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i-League 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
62%38%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EHOMEloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 26 games
81%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 25 games
72%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 18 games
61%
Tusk
Tusksignature
XinQ · 18 games
72%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
NothingToSay · 17 games
59%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 16 games
56%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Ame · 16 games
81%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
73%

EHOME

Mars
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 19 games
53%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 19 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
xNova · 17 games
47%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Frisk · 11 games
55%
Luna
Lunasignature
Frisk · 11 games
64%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
xNova · 10 games
90%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
Sylar · 9 games
89%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
xNova · 8 games
38%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
405 picks · 963 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
374 picks · 530 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
346 picks · 711 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
335 picks · 550 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
324 picks · 328 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
297 picks · 219 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
295 picks · 162 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
271 picks · 277 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 66%
Hero pool strength54% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 3
Model total62% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:16
LGD Gaming 60%EHOME 40%
The model gave 60% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 24:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidAme
63% · 23 games37% · 41 game
TinyXm
Tiny
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerFaith_bian
45% · 40 games35% · 42 games
Phantom AssassinSylar
Phantom Assassin
Leshrac
LeshracNothingToSay
59% · 50 games52% · 16 games
AxeChalice
Axe
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinXinQ
62% · 84 games44% · 49 games
Crystal MaidenFrisk
Crystal Maiden
Enchantress
Enchantressy`
63% · 56 games42% · 105 games
GrimstrokexNova
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction correct29:13
LGD Gaming 56%EHOME 44%
The model gave 56% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 31:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinAme
37% · 34 games59% · 68 games
Ember SpiritSylar
Ember Spirit
Sand King
Sand KingNothingToSay
43% · 16 games49% · 34 games
Dragon KnightXm
Dragon Knight
Mars
MarsFaith_bian
43% · 65 games47% · 7 games
BroodmotherChalice
Broodmother
Mirana
MiranaXinQ
52% · 39 gameslittle data
DazzleFrisk
Dazzle
Treant Protector
Treant Protectory`
57% · 3 games58% · 48 games
EnchantressxNova
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 62%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2