Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Invictus Gamingwin 2:1series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Royal Never Give Uploss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Royal Never Give Up
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
403 picks · 960 bans
Void Spirit
374 picks · 529 bans
Death Prophet
346 picks · 707 bans
Mars
332 picks · 550 bans
Grimstroke
323 picks · 327 bans
Tusk
298 picks · 218 bans
Lion
294 picks · 162 bans
Earth Spirit
269 picks · 278 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 53%
Hero pool strength50% Invictus Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total69% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:8
Invictus Gaming 69%Royal Never Give Up 31%
The model gave 69% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 27:14.
Game 2prediction missed23:12
Invictus Gaming 69%Royal Never Give Up 31%
The model gave 69% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 38:45.
Game 3prediction missed25:25
Invictus Gaming 69%Royal Never Give Up 31%
The model gave 69% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Royal Never Give Up in 49:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 69%
Series resultInvictus Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3