Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Eternitywin 2:0series probability
34%66%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Cutloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Eternity
Lion
YamSun · 8 games
Mirana
FrancisLee · 4 games
Puckoften banned
Ryoya · 4 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Jubei · 4 games
Witch Doctor
Jubei · 4 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
EternaLEnVy · 4 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Jubei · 3 games
Clockwerk
Jubei · 3 games
The Cut
Void Spiritoften banned
Lil_Nick · 9 games
Beastmasteroften banned
TingleK1ng · 3 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lil_Nick · 3 games
Iooften banned
Scourge McDuck · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TingleK1ng · 3 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 3 games
Batrideroften banned
Lil_Nick · 2 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
405 picks · 963 bans
Void Spirit
375 picks · 530 bans
Death Prophet
346 picks · 710 bans
Mars
334 picks · 550 bans
Grimstroke
323 picks · 327 bans
Tusk
298 picks · 218 bans
Lion
294 picks · 162 bans
Earth Spirit
270 picks · 276 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)24% vs 36%
Hero pool strength56% The Cut
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% The Cut
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:21
Eternity 44%The Cut 56%
The model gave 56% on The Cut — the game was taken by Eternity in 23:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidEternaLEnVy
Troll WarlordScourge McDuck
Nyx AssassinYamSun
PuckLil_Nick
Void SpiritJubei
MarsTingleK1ng
Game 2prediction missed34:16
Eternity 43%The Cut 57%
The model gave 57% on The Cut — the game was taken by Eternity in 40:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LunaEternaLEnVy
BristlebackScourge McDuck
HoodwinkJubei
Dragon Knightred2
Nyx AssassinYamSun
PangolierTingleK1ng
Model check result
Model favoriteThe Cut · 66%
Series resultEternity 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2