Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewwin 2:0series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:0
4 Zoomersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Quincy Crew
No games played over 6 months.
4 Zoomers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
406 picks · 959 bans
Void Spirit
374 picks · 531 bans
Death Prophet
346 picks · 709 bans
Mars
333 picks · 549 bans
Grimstroke
323 picks · 326 bans
Tusk
297 picks · 219 bans
Lion
294 picks · 162 bans
Earth Spirit
270 picks · 276 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 61%
Hero pool strength50% Quincy Crew
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total53% Quincy Crew
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed7:37
Quincy Crew 53%4 Zoomers 47%
The model gave 53% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 37:11.
Game 2prediction missed12:52
Quincy Crew 53%4 Zoomers 47%
The model gave 53% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by 4 Zoomers in 31:58.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuincy Crew · 53%
Series resultQuincy Crew 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2