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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
EgoBoyswin 2:1
series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Gorillaz-Prideloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

EgoBoys

No games played over 6 months.

Gorillaz-Pride

Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
Cara · 7 games
57%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
d1smar · 6 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
d1smar · 6 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Benjaz · 5 games
60%
Puck
Puckoften banned
TaO · 5 games
40%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TaO · 5 games
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Cara · 4 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Benjaz · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
406 picks · 959 bans
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
374 picks · 531 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
346 picks · 709 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
333 picks · 549 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
323 picks · 326 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
297 picks · 219 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
294 picks · 162 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
270 picks · 276 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 45%
Hero pool strength50% Gorillaz-Pride
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% EgoBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:13
EgoBoys 55%Gorillaz-Pride 45%
The model gave 55% on EgoBoys — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 27:19.
Game 2prediction missed34:21
EgoBoys 55%Gorillaz-Pride 45%
The model gave 55% on EgoBoys — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 41:45.
Game 3prediction missed23:8
EgoBoys 55%Gorillaz-Pride 45%
The model gave 55% on EgoBoys — the game was taken by Gorillaz-Pride in 29:33.
Model check result
Model favoriteEgoBoys · 55%
Series resultEgoBoys 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 3