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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empirewin 2:0
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
NoTechiesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
sayuw · 10 games
40%
Tusk
Tusksignature
sayuw · 9 games
67%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Smiling Knight · 9 games
67%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Petushara · 8 games
63%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
sayuw · 8 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 6 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
Petushara · 6 games
67%

NoTechies

Mars
Marsoften banned
DkFogas · 8 games
13%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Solo · 7 games
29%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Zayac · 5 games
40%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Solo · 5 games
60%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Zayac · 5 games
40%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
Solo · 5 games
20%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Malik · 5 games
40%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
Zayac · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
409 picks · 953 bans
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
374 picks · 530 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
346 picks · 705 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
334 picks · 548 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
320 picks · 324 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
296 picks · 219 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
291 picks · 161 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
271 picks · 278 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 25%
Hero pool strength57% Team Empire
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:10
Team Empire 57%NoTechies 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 40:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lycan
LycanSmiling Knight
44% · 21 game48% · 13 games
Lunalayme
Luna
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerPetushara
55% · 43 games42% · 30 games
LeshracEgor
Leshrac
Invoker
Invokerkiyotaka
51% · 34 games58% · 20 games
AxeDkFogas
Axe
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsayuw
61% · 23 games44% · 33 games
AbaddonSolo
Abaddon
Enchantress
EnchantressVANSKOR
56% · 37 games45% · 62 games
Lionxsvampire
Lion
Game 2prediction correct25:17
Team Empire 57%NoTechies 43%
The model gave 57% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 30:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinkiyotaka
54% · 22 games59% · 9 games
Axelayme
Axe
Wraith King
Wraith KingSmiling Knight
48% · 61 game46% · 26 games
TimbersawDkFogas
Timbersaw
Slardar
SlardarPetushara
71% · 15 games38% · 24 games
TinyEgor
Tiny
Lina
Linasayuw
51% · 27 games53% · 42 games
Miranaxsvampire
Mirana
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionVANSKOR
57% · 6 games45% · 30 games
EnchantressSolo
Enchantress
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 61%
Series resultTeam Empire 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2