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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Omega Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Neon Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Omega Esports

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Mac · 14 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
cml · 13 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Sam_H · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
Tino- · 9 games
56%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Tino- · 8 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mac · 8 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
cml · 8 games
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 8 games
63%

Neon Esports

Puck
Pucksignature
Yopaj · 19 games
74%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
PlayHard · 14 games
79%
Tusk
Tusk
PlayHard · 13 games
54%
Mirana
Mirana
Skem · 12 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Jaunuel · 11 games
64%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Skem · 11 games
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Yopaj · 11 games
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Yopaj · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
409 picks · 951 bans
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
371 picks · 531 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
347 picks · 704 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
334 picks · 548 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
319 picks · 321 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
296 picks · 219 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
290 picks · 160 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
271 picks · 278 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 38%
Hero pool strength51% Omega Esports
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct4:23
Omega Esports 47%Neon Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 23:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerTino-
54% · 17 games42% · 40 games
Phantom AssassinNatsumi
Phantom Assassin
Broodmother
BroodmotherSam_H
little data35% · 18 games
Sand KingYopaj
Sand King
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMac
50% · 83 games65% · 18 games
SlardarSkem
Slardar
Enchantress
Enchantresscml
51% · 31 game57% · 50 games
MiranaPlayHard
Mirana
33% · 5 games
MagnusJaunuel
Magnus
Game 2prediction correct4:27
Omega Esports 45%Neon Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 22:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingMac
41% · 68 games57% · 35 games
GyrocopterNatsumi
Gyrocopter
Tiny
TinyTino-
55% · 53 games53% · 35 games
Ember SpiritYopaj
Ember Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightSam_H
52% · 42 games44% · 8 games
Legion CommanderSkem
Legion Commander
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magicml
50% · 10 games44% · 65 games
GrimstrokePlayHard
Grimstroke
57% · 30 games
IoJaunuel
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 61%
Series resultNeon Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2