Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionTMTeam Mysteryloss 0:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
496 Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Mystery
Tusk
Ponyo · 4 games
Juggernautoften banned
Ghost · 2 games
Marsoften banned
xiaoyu154 · 2 games
Phoenixoften banned
Ponyo · 2 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Mercury · 1 game
Earthshaker
Ohaiyo · 1 game
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mercury · 1 game
Grimstrokeoften banned
Ohaiyo · 1 game
496 Gaming
Earth Spiritsignature
NARMAN · 8 games
Winter Wyvern
Bombi · 7 games
Brewmaster
Red · 5 games
Marsoften banned
Red · 4 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Red · 4 games
Snapfire
Bombi · 3 games
Tiny
NARMAN · 3 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Bombi · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
408 picks · 948 bans
Void Spirit
374 picks · 531 bans
Death Prophet
346 picks · 699 bans
Mars
330 picks · 549 bans
Grimstroke
317 picks · 319 bans
Tusk
298 picks · 219 bans
Lion
284 picks · 160 bans
Earth Spirit
270 picks · 280 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 27%
Hero pool strength54% 496 Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% 496 Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favorite496 Gaming · 51%
Series result496 Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect