Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
EXTREMUMwin 2:0series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Uniqueloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EXTREMUM
Death Prophetsignature
G · 15 games
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 15 games
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 13 games
Puckoften banned
mellojul · 12 games
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 12 games
Phoenixsignature
Chuvash · 8 games
Witch Doctor
G · 8 games
Alchemistoften banned
Nefrit · 7 games
Team Unique
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
407 picks · 949 bans
Void Spirit
374 picks · 531 bans
Death Prophet
344 picks · 701 bans
Mars
330 picks · 545 bans
Grimstroke
318 picks · 318 bans
Tusk
298 picks · 220 bans
Lion
284 picks · 160 bans
Earth Spirit
270 picks · 282 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 54%
Hero pool strength53% EXTREMUM
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total64% Team Unique
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed36:15
EXTREMUM 36%Team Unique 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Unique — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 42:55.
Game 2prediction missed21:3
EXTREMUM 36%Team Unique 64%
The model gave 64% on Team Unique — the game was taken by EXTREMUM in 20:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Unique · 64%
Series resultEXTREMUM 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2