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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Hellbear Smashersloss 0:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nigma Galaxywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hellbear Smashers

Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 21 game
76%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 17 games
65%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 15 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 15 games
60%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 14 games
71%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
75%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Gilgir · 12 games
75%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Gilgir · 11 games
82%

Nigma Galaxy

Puck
Puckoften banned
w33 · 9 games
44%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 8 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Miracle- · 8 games
63%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 7 games
57%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 7 games
43%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
w33 · 6 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Miracle- · 6 games
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
KuroKy · 6 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
407 picks · 949 bans
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
374 picks · 531 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
344 picks · 701 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
330 picks · 545 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
318 picks · 318 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
298 picks · 220 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
284 picks · 160 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
270 picks · 282 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 35%
Hero pool strength61% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed27:31
Hellbear Smashers 60%Nigma Galaxy 40%
The model gave 60% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 37:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinAce
54% · 48 games46% · 83 games
Troll WarlordiLTW
Troll Warlord
Tidehunter
TidehunterMISERY
49% · 73 games47% · 60 games
BatriderrmN-
Batrider
Puck
PuckStormstormer
52% · 161 game50% · 166 games
MarsMinD_ContRoL
Mars
Tiny
TinyGilgir
48% · 44 games58% · 11 games
WarlockKuroKy
Warlock
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitiontOfu
51% · 36 games52% · 42 games
Dark WillowGH
Dark Willow
Game 2prediction missed29:41
Hellbear Smashers 58%Nigma Galaxy 42%
The model gave 58% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 51:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingAce
48% · 63 games53% · 16 games
BristlebackrmN-
Bristleback
Pugna
PugnaStormstormer
52% · 13 games58% · 40 games
Ember SpiritiLTW
Ember Spirit
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMISERY
48% · 22 games50% · 20 games
TimbersawMinD_ContRoL
Timbersaw
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitiontOfu
34% · 24 games57% · 20 games
Dark WillowGH
Dark Willow
Lina
LinaGilgir
56% · 12 games50% · 38 games
Elder TitanKuroKy
Elder Titan
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 65%
Series resultNigma Galaxy 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2