Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
No Bounty Hunterloss 1:2series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Level UPwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
No Bounty Hunter
Rubick
ntakii · 19 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
NARMAN · 17 games
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 15 games
Grimstrokesignature
Flash · 14 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
NARMAN · 12 games
Void Spiritoften banned
ntakii · 10 games
Death Prophetsignature
BliNcc · 9 games
Bloodseekersignature
BliNcc · 7 games
Level UP
Dark Seeroften banned
Mastermind · 2 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Bor@nija · 2 games
Dark Willow
Bor@nija · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
Mirana
Mastermind · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
Sand King
Bor@nija · 1 game
Slardaroften banned
Mastermind · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
408 picks · 945 bans
Void Spirit
372 picks · 530 bans
Death Prophet
344 picks · 703 bans
Mars
329 picks · 544 bans
Grimstroke
317 picks · 314 bans
Tusk
297 picks · 220 bans
Lion
282 picks · 160 bans
Earth Spirit
270 picks · 284 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 58%
Hero pool strength61% No Bounty Hunter
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total57% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct8:23
No Bounty Hunter 43%Level UP 57%
The model gave 57% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 28:02.
Game 2prediction missed31:21
No Bounty Hunter 43%Level UP 57%
The model gave 57% on Level UP — the game was taken by No Bounty Hunter in 38:06.
Game 3prediction correct5:23
No Bounty Hunter 43%Level UP 57%
The model gave 57% on Level UP — the game was taken by Level UP in 21:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 57%
Series resultLevel UP 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3