Pinnacle Cup · BO3
result vs prediction
Chicken Fighterswin 2:0series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PuckChamploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Chicken Fighters
No games played over 6 months.
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
408 picks · 945 bans
Void Spirit
372 picks · 530 bans
Death Prophet
344 picks · 703 bans
Mars
329 picks · 544 bans
Grimstroke
317 picks · 314 bans
Tusk
297 picks · 220 bans
Lion
282 picks · 160 bans
Earth Spirit
270 picks · 284 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 61%
Hero pool strength50% Chicken Fighters
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% PuckChamp
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:17
Chicken Fighters 39%PuckChamp 61%
The model gave 61% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 33:10.
Game 2prediction correct35:10
Chicken Fighters 39%PuckChamp 61%
The model gave 61% on PuckChamp — the game was taken by PuckChamp in 24:09.
Model check result
Model favoritePuckChamp · 61%
Series resultChicken Fighters 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2