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i-League 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
LGD Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Asterloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

LGD Gaming

Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 25 games
72%
Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 25 games
80%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 18 games
61%
Tusk
Tusksignature
XinQ · 18 games
72%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
NothingToSay · 17 games
59%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 16 games
56%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Ame · 16 games
81%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 15 games
73%

Team Aster

Puck
Pucksignature
White丶Album · 15 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddon
LaNm · 14 games
57%
Mars
Marssignature
Xxs · 14 games
64%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
White丶Album · 13 games
69%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
LaNm · 12 games
58%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Monet · 10 games
80%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
LaNm · 10 games
70%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
Monet · 10 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
407 picks · 941 bans
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
371 picks · 531 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
345 picks · 700 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
328 picks · 543 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
314 picks · 312 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
296 picks · 220 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
281 picks · 158 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
269 picks · 283 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 57%
Hero pool strength52% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total52% Team Aster
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:12
LGD Gaming 48%Team Aster 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Aster — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 29:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaAme
54% · 26 games53% · 10 games
SpectreMonet
Spectre
Axe
AxeFaith_bian
73% · 11 games56% · 5 games
BroodmotherXxs
Broodmother
Magnus
MagnusNothingToSay
63% · 8 games55% · 37 games
TinyWhite丶Album
Tiny
Pangolier
PangolierXinQ
48% · 40 games40% · 62 games
RubickBoBoKa
Rubick
Grimstroke
Grimstrokey`
49% · 85 games48% · 56 games
AbaddonLaNm
Abaddon
Game 2prediction missed31:6
LGD Gaming 48%Team Aster 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Aster — the game was taken by LGD Gaming in 36:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaAme
48% · 71 game45% · 97 games
PuckWhite丶Album
Puck
Magnus
MagnusNothingToSay
52% · 13 gameslittle data
Drow RangerMonet
Drow Ranger
Slardar
SlardarFaith_bian
54% · 36 games46% · 84 games
GrimstrokeBoBoKa
Grimstroke
Snapfire
SnapfireXinQ
46% · 56 games44% · 19 games
Legion CommanderXxs
Legion Commander
Enchantress
Enchantressy`
69% · 39 games63% · 15 games
Ogre MagiLaNm
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Aster · 52%
Series resultLGD Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2