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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Omega Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Fnaticwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Omega Esports

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Mac · 14 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
cml · 13 games
69%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
Tino- · 8 games
63%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Mac · 8 games
63%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
cml · 8 games
38%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Sam_H · 8 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 8 games
63%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Tino- · 8 games
75%

Fnatic

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
407 picks · 940 bans
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
371 picks · 533 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
346 picks · 698 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
328 picks · 543 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
314 picks · 312 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
295 picks · 220 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
281 picks · 157 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
269 picks · 283 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 58%
Hero pool strength58% Omega Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Omega Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:12
Omega Esports 50%Fnatic 50%
The model gave 50% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Omega Esports in 37:08.
Game 2prediction missed8:25
Omega Esports 50%Fnatic 50%
The model gave 50% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Fnatic in 35:30.
Game 3prediction missed12:24
Omega Esports 50%Fnatic 50%
The model gave 50% on Omega Esports — the game was taken by Fnatic in 40:20.
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Esports · 50%
Series resultFnatic 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3