Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Level UPwin 2:0series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hippomaniacsloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Level UP
Dark Seeroften banned
Mastermind · 2 games
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Bor@nija · 2 games
Dark Willow
Bor@nija · 1 game
Marsoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
Mirana
Mastermind · 1 game
Phoenixoften banned
Bor@nija · 1 game
Sand King
Bor@nija · 1 game
Slardaroften banned
Mastermind · 1 game
Hippomaniacs
Kunkkaoften banned
Supream^ · 1 game
Storm Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
415 picks · 943 bans
Void Spirit
380 picks · 537 bans
Death Prophet
347 picks · 706 bans
Mars
329 picks · 546 bans
Grimstroke
312 picks · 306 bans
Tusk
296 picks · 221 bans
Lion
281 picks · 155 bans
Earth Spirit
275 picks · 280 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)55% vs 22%
Hero pool strength52% Hippomaniacs
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Level UP
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:22
Level UP 78%Hippomaniacs 22%
The model gave 78% on Level UP — the game was taken by Hippomaniacs in 34:23.
Game 2prediction missed8:35
Level UP 78%Hippomaniacs 22%
The model gave 78% on Level UP — the game was taken by Hippomaniacs in 23:24.
Model check result
Model favoriteLevel UP · 78%
Series resultLevel UP 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2