Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 1:2series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 1:2
B8 Esportswin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Empire
Phoenixoften banned
sayuw · 10 games
Shadow Shaman
sayuw · 10 games
Wraith Kingsignature
Smiling Knight · 9 games
Death Prophetsignature
Petushara · 8 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
sayuw · 8 games
Tusksignature
sayuw · 7 games
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 6 games
Clockwerk
sayuw · 5 games
B8 Esports
Puckoften banned
Dendi · 14 games
Shadow Shaman
[T]SA · 10 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
RdO · 8 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Dendi · 7 games
Rubick
[T]SA · 7 games
Wraith Kingoften banned
RdO · 7 games
Enchantressoften banned
Duster · 6 games
Earthshaker
[T]SA · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
415 picks · 942 bans
Void Spirit
379 picks · 538 bans
Death Prophet
347 picks · 707 bans
Mars
329 picks · 547 bans
Grimstroke
314 picks · 303 bans
Tusk
294 picks · 220 bans
Lion
280 picks · 154 bans
Earth Spirit
275 picks · 280 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)42% vs 35%
Hero pool strength56% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:29
Team Empire 54%B8 Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Empire — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 54:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
GyrocopterSmiling Knight
Queen of PainDendi
Tinykiyotaka
Faceless VoidWatson
VenomancerPetushara
SlardarLimitless
SnapfireVANSKOR
Enchantressnofear
Tusksayuw
Elder Titan[T]SA
Game 2prediction correct35:15
Team Empire 55%B8 Esports 45%
The model gave 55% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 38:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll WarlordSmiling Knight
Phantom AssassinWatson
TimbersawPetushara
Void SpiritDendi
Invokerkiyotaka
MagnusLimitless
SnapfireVANSKOR
Enchantressnofear
Tusksayuw
Disruptor[T]SA
Game 3prediction missed12:27
Team Empire 54%B8 Esports 46%
The model gave 54% on Team Empire — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 34:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlingkiyotaka
GyrocopterWatson
JuggernautSmiling Knight
Templar AssassinDendi
TimbersawPetushara
Centaur WarrunnerLimitless
Lionsayuw
Ionofear
EnchantressVANSKOR
Mirana[T]SA
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 60%
Series resultB8 Esports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3