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Paragon Turbina · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spirit Academywin 2:1
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yellow Submarineloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Spirit Academy

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Aidar · 20 games
50%
Lion
Lion
Aidar · 17 games
47%
Kunkka
Kunkka
86 · 14 games
29%
Largo
Largooften banned
kae · 13 games
46%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Aidar · 12 games
42%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
kae · 11 games
36%
Batrider
Batridersignature
86 · 10 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakiro
kyford · 10 games
20%

Yellow Submarine

Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Xakoda · 39 games
62%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Mirele · 23 games
61%
Lich
Lichsignature
Xakoda · 18 games
67%
Batrider
Batridersignature
not me · 15 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Infernal · 14 games
50%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Shigetsu · 14 games
64%
Windranger
Windranger
Shigetsu · 14 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Batyuk · 13 games
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
496 picks · 355 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
381 picks · 232 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
340 picks · 639 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
335 picks · 346 bans
50%
Windranger
Windranger
317 picks · 228 bans
49%
Pangolier
Pangolier
296 picks · 395 bans
53%
Bane
Bane
295 picks · 289 bans
61%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
284 picks · 420 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 67%
Hero pool strength58% Yellow Submarine
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total71% Yellow Submarine
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:37
Team Spirit Academy 36%Yellow Submarine 64%
The model gave 64% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Yellow Submarine in 49:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit86
54% · 85 games54% · 9 games
Linabottega
Lina
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAidar
51% · 92 games36% · 33 games
Timbersawkae
Timbersaw
54% · 49 games
Storm SpiritRain
Storm Spirit
44% · 66 games
TuskWein
Tusk
58% · 20 games
LichXakoda
Lich
Game 2prediction missed30:12
Team Spirit Academy 37%Yellow Submarine 63%
The model gave 63% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 44:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Largo
Largo86
54% · 98 games70% · 6 games
LinaRain
Lina
Oracle
OracleAidar
50% · 6 games42% · 15 games
Svenbottega
Sven
32% · 21 game
Brewmasterkae
Brewmaster
50% · 10 games
Witch DoctorXakoda
Witch Doctor
50% · 52 games
ClockwerkWein
Clockwerk
Game 3prediction missed37:11
Team Spirit Academy 40%Yellow Submarine 60%
The model gave 60% on Yellow Submarine — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 49:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
Puck86
51% · 346 games47% · 11 games
TinkerRain
Tinker
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeAidar
49% · 79 games48% · 82 games
Timbersawkae
Timbersaw
51% · 176 games
Tinybottega
Tiny
48% · 105 games
RingmasterXakoda
Ringmaster
54% · 51 game
TechiesWein
Techies
Model check result
Model favoriteYellow Submarine · 71%
Series resultTeam Spirit Academy 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3