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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Quincy Crewwin 2:0
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The Cutloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Quincy Crew

No games played over 6 months.

The Cut

Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Lil_Nick · 8 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
TingleK1ng · 3 games
33%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Lil_Nick · 3 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
TingleK1ng · 3 games
100%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 3 games
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Lil_Nick · 2 games
50%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Scourge McDuck · 2 games
0%
Io
Iooften banned
Scourge McDuck · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
416 picks · 944 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
382 picks · 539 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
346 picks · 705 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
327 picks · 553 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
313 picks · 303 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
295 picks · 220 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
279 picks · 153 bans
48%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
276 picks · 286 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 40%
Hero pool strength53% The Cut
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Quincy Crew
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed6:24
Quincy Crew 66%The Cut 34%
The model gave 66% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by The Cut in 16:25.
Game 2prediction missed50:21
Quincy Crew 66%The Cut 34%
The model gave 66% on Quincy Crew — the game was taken by The Cut in 37:16.
Model check result
Model favoriteQuincy Crew · 66%
Series resultQuincy Crew 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2