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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Natus Vincereloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Lion
Lionsignature
Save- · 13 games
77%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
1ls · 9 games
89%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
DM · 8 games
75%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Nightfall · 6 games
83%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DM · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
1ls · 4 games
75%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
DM · 4 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
1ls · 4 games
25%

Natus Vincere

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
GeneRaL · 7 games
71%
Chen
Chenoften banned
RodjER · 6 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 6 games
67%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
GeneRaL · 6 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
V-Tune · 5 games
60%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinoften banned
RodjER · 5 games
100%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinoften banned
V-Tune · 5 games
100%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
ALWAYSWANNAFLY · 5 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
415 picks · 947 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
381 picks · 541 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
348 picks · 707 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
328 picks · 554 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
315 picks · 302 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
295 picks · 220 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
278 picks · 286 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
278 picks · 152 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 55%
Hero pool strength52% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total68% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:2
Virtus.pro 60%Natus Vincere 40%
The model gave 60% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 32:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinNightfall
48% · 50 games48% · 32 games
MedusaV-Tune
Medusa
Void Spirit
Void SpiritgpK~
47% · 214 games39% · 179 games
PuckIceberg
Puck
Magnus
MagnusDM
57% · 14 games54% · 62 games
TidehunterRAMZES666
Tidehunter
Enchantress
EnchantressSave-
50% · 56 games58% · 76 games
PhoenixRodjER
Phoenix
Disruptor
Disruptor1ls
63% · 34 games45% · 19 games
LinaALWAYSWANNAFLY
Lina
Game 2prediction correct19:3
Virtus.pro 60%Natus Vincere 40%
The model gave 60% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 20:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordNightfall
54% · 45 games48% · 30 games
Phantom LancerV-Tune
Phantom Lancer
Doom
DoomDM
48% · 11 gameslittle data
BroodmotherRAMZES666
Broodmother
Puck
PuckgpK~
59% · 143 games44% · 61 game
Storm SpiritIceberg
Storm Spirit
Enchantress
EnchantressSave-
54% · 40 games50% · 115 games
LionRodjER
Lion
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition1ls
49% · 23 games40% · 56 games
Crystal MaidenALWAYSWANNAFLY
Crystal Maiden
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 68%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2