Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Spiritwin 2:0series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:0
PuckChamploss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TORONTOTOKYO · 12 games
Oraclesignature
Miposhka · 9 games
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 8 games
Crystal Maiden
Miposhka · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 7 games
Bloodseekersignature
Collapse · 6 games
Morphlingsignature
Yatoro · 6 games
Storm Spiritsignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 6 games
PuckChamp
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
415 picks · 951 bans
Void Spirit
382 picks · 543 bans
Death Prophet
348 picks · 711 bans
Mars
327 picks · 557 bans
Grimstroke
316 picks · 302 bans
Tusk
294 picks · 219 bans
Earth Spirit
279 picks · 285 bans
Lion
278 picks · 151 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)77% vs 64%
Hero pool strength55% Team Spirit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:11
Team Spirit 61%PuckChamp 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 38:26.
Game 2prediction correct41:14
Team Spirit 61%PuckChamp 39%
The model gave 61% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Team Spirit in 33:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 61%
Series resultTeam Spirit 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2