Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Северная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Wind and Rainloss 0:2series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Arkosh Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Wind and Rain
Tusk
Steelborco · 2 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Sword · 1 game
Grimstroke
yol · 1 game
Leshracoften banned
Sword · 1 game
Oracleoften banned
yol · 1 game
Arkosh Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
421 picks · 947 bans
Void Spirit
384 picks · 543 bans
Death Prophet
344 picks · 713 bans
Mars
326 picks · 558 bans
Grimstroke
313 picks · 303 bans
Tusk
296 picks · 214 bans
Earth Spirit
278 picks · 281 bans
Lion
272 picks · 151 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 47%
Hero pool strength58% Arkosh Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% Arkosh Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct18:27
Wind and Rain 49%Arkosh Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 34:10.
Game 2prediction correct28:33
Wind and Rain 49%Arkosh Gaming 51%
The model gave 51% on Arkosh Gaming — the game was taken by Arkosh Gaming in 33:28.
Model check result
Model favoriteArkosh Gaming · 51%
Series resultArkosh Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2