?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
T1win 2:1
series probability
29%71%
probability at match start · final 2:1
TNC Predatorloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

T1

No games played over 6 months.

TNC Predator

Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
kpii · 8 games
75%
Mirana
Mirana
Tims · 8 games
50%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
Gabbi · 6 games
67%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Febby · 6 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
kpii · 5 games
80%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Armel · 5 games
60%
Tusk
Tusk
Febby · 5 games
80%
Lion
Lion
Tims · 4 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
422 picks · 950 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
388 picks · 548 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
351 picks · 709 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
328 picks · 562 bans
54%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
312 picks · 302 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
296 picks · 213 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
280 picks · 284 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
269 picks · 148 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 73%
Hero pool strength58% TNC Predator
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total71% TNC Predator
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:26
T1 29%TNC Predator 71%
The model gave 71% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 35:06.
Game 2prediction correct33:16
T1 29%TNC Predator 71%
The model gave 71% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 40:19.
Game 3prediction correct16:12
T1 29%TNC Predator 71%
The model gave 71% on TNC Predator — the game was taken by TNC Predator in 44:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteTNC Predator · 71%
Series resultT1 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3