i-League 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
EHOMEloss 0:2series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Elephantwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EHOME
Marsoften banned
Chalice · 18 games
Pucksignature
Xm · 17 games
Tusk
xNova · 17 games
Grimstroke
Frisk · 11 games
Earth Spiritsignature
xNova · 10 games
Lunasignature
Frisk · 9 games
Juggernautsignature
Sylar · 7 games
Nature's Prophetsignature
Chalice · 7 games
Elephant
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
421 picks · 952 bans
Void Spirit
389 picks · 547 bans
Death Prophet
354 picks · 708 bans
Mars
330 picks · 562 bans
Grimstroke
312 picks · 301 bans
Tusk
296 picks · 212 bans
Earth Spirit
283 picks · 284 bans
Lion
269 picks · 147 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 56%
Hero pool strength58% EHOME
Head-to-head3 – 2
Model total64% EHOME
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed12:32
EHOME 64%Elephant 36%
The model gave 64% on EHOME — the game was taken by Elephant in 39:51.
Game 2prediction missed29:32
EHOME 64%Elephant 36%
The model gave 64% on EHOME — the game was taken by Elephant in 47:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteEHOME · 64%
Series resultElephant 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2