Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — ЮВА 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Motivate.Trust Gamingwin 2:0series probability
64%36%
probability at match start · final 2:0
SBSouth Built Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Motivate.Trust Gaming
Storm Spiritoften banned
Fearless · 2 games
Abaddon
LionaX · 1 game
Clockwerk
Q · 1 game
Lion
Q · 1 game
Morphlingoften banned
JaCkky · 1 game
Oracleoften banned
LionaX · 1 game
Ursaoften banned
JaCkky · 1 game
South Built Esports
Gyrocopter
Abat · 4 games
Alchemistoften banned
Enryu · 3 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Enryu · 3 games
Bristlebackoften banned
Abat · 2 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Bob · 2 games
Leshracoften banned
Bob · 2 games
Puckoften banned
Bob · 2 games
Ursaoften banned
Abat · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
423 picks · 948 bans
Void Spirit
388 picks · 545 bans
Death Prophet
353 picks · 706 bans
Mars
330 picks · 564 bans
Grimstroke
311 picks · 301 bans
Tusk
295 picks · 210 bans
Earth Spirit
283 picks · 284 bans
Lion
268 picks · 147 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)80% vs 63%
Hero pool strength52% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total64% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:20
Motivate.Trust Gaming 57%South Built Esports 43%
The model gave 57% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 35:58.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaJaCkky
Anti-MageAbat
Ember SpiritFearless
Storm SpiritBob
LionQ
Centaur WarrunnerEnryu
Elder TitanLionaX
Game 2prediction correct35:20
Motivate.Trust Gaming 56%South Built Esports 44%
The model gave 56% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 36:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingJaCkky
Monkey KingAbat
Death ProphetFearless
RazorEnryu
GrimstrokeQ
Storm SpiritBob
ClockwerkLionaX
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 64%
Series resultMotivate.Trust Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2