Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Hokoriwin 2:0series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Unknownloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Hokori
No games played over 6 months.
Team Unknown
Earth Spiritsignature
Wij · 6 games
Grimstroke
Yadomi · 6 games
Marsoften banned
drakeel · 6 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Berna · 5 games
Puckoften banned
Robo-Z · 5 games
Beastmasteroften banned
drakeel · 4 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Wij · 4 games
Earthshaker
Wij · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
424 picks · 950 bans
Void Spirit
388 picks · 546 bans
Death Prophet
353 picks · 706 bans
Mars
331 picks · 565 bans
Grimstroke
311 picks · 301 bans
Tusk
295 picks · 210 bans
Earth Spirit
283 picks · 284 bans
Lion
269 picks · 147 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 32%
Hero pool strength54% Team Unknown
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total58% Hokori
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteHokori · 58%
Series resultHokori 2:0
Series predictioncorrect