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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Latam Defendersloss 0:2
series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Inversewin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Latam Defenders

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Moonlight · 9 games
56%
Mirana
Mirana
Moonlight · 9 games
56%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Aretes · 6 games
33%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
Valquiria · 6 games
0%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Aretes · 6 games
33%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Valquiria · 5 games
20%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Valquiria · 5 games
60%
Undying
Undyingoften banned
Aretes · 5 games
60%

Inverse

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Slaw · 7 games
29%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
ArzenT · 2 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Slaw · 2 games
100%
Enigma
Enigmaoften banned
ArzenT · 2 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
DM · 2 games
0%
Juggernaut
Juggernautoften banned
Parker · 2 games
0%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Migi · 2 games
50%
Necrophos
Necrophosoften banned
ArzenT · 2 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
431 picks · 961 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
395 picks · 553 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
356 picks · 709 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
339 picks · 570 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
314 picks · 305 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
296 picks · 210 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
288 picks · 286 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
271 picks · 147 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)28% vs 33%
Hero pool strength52% Latam Defenders
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% Latam Defenders
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed17:30
Latam Defenders 55%Inverse 45%
The model gave 55% on Latam Defenders — the game was taken by Inverse in 34:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingCucahook
48% · 24 games53% · 16 games
Ogre MagiArzenT
Ogre Magi
Timbersaw
TimbersawValquiria
46% · 23 games48% · 22 games
InvokerMigi
Invoker
Mirana
MiranaMoonlight
65% · 14 games47% · 23 games
ViperSlaw
Viper
Game 2prediction missed28:35
Latam Defenders 55%Inverse 45%
The model gave 55% on Latam Defenders — the game was taken by Inverse in 32:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordCucahook
43% · 43 games47% · 9 games
PugnaMigi
Pugna
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerValquiria
50% · 8 games57% · 71 game
Death ProphetArzenT
Death Prophet
Lion
LionMoonlight
48% · 38 games48% · 9 games
Ogre MagiSlaw
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteLatam Defenders · 60%
Series resultInverse 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2