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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
AS Monaco Gambitwin 2:0
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Winstrike Teamloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

AS Monaco Gambit

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
xsvampire · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
PuberrrR · 4 games
25%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
xannii · 4 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 4 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
75%
Mirana
Mirana
xsvampire · 3 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
100%

Winstrike Team

Puck
Pucksignature
re1bl · 15 games
67%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
dyrachyo · 13 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
yamich · 12 games
67%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
yamich · 11 games
73%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
re1bl · 10 games
60%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
dyrachyo · 9 games
67%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Panto · 9 games
33%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Panto · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
431 picks · 959 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
393 picks · 553 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
356 picks · 709 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
339 picks · 568 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
313 picks · 304 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
295 picks · 210 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
288 picks · 284 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
271 picks · 145 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 58%
Hero pool strength55% Winstrike Team
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total62% Winstrike Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:46
AS Monaco Gambit 38%Winstrike Team 62%
The model gave 62% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 56:24.
Game 2prediction correct37:30
AS Monaco Gambit 38%Winstrike Team 62%
The model gave 62% on Winstrike Team — the game was taken by Winstrike Team in 42:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteWinstrike Team · 62%
Series resultAS Monaco Gambit 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2