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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Omega Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
57%43%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Gorillaz-Prideloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Omega Gaming

Tusk
Tusk
Zxca · 5 games
60%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knight
Mingatte · 4 games
25%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Jeimari · 3 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Mingatte · 2 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Zxca · 2 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Jeimari · 2 games
100%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Oscar · 2 games
100%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Mingatte · 2 games
100%

Gorillaz-Pride

Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Cara · 7 games
57%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
d1smar · 6 games
33%
Rubick
Rubick
d1smar · 6 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
Benjaz · 5 games
60%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
TaO · 5 games
60%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
d1smar · 4 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
TaO · 4 games
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Benjaz · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
426 picks · 958 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
391 picks · 553 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
355 picks · 707 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
339 picks · 571 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
313 picks · 298 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
295 picks · 210 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
293 picks · 283 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
268 picks · 142 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 58%
Hero pool strength51% Omega Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total57% Omega Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:22
Omega Gaming 54%Gorillaz-Pride 46%
The model gave 54% on Omega Gaming — the game was taken by Omega Gaming in 35:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingMingatte
57% · 109 games49% · 49 games
Phantom AssassinArgius
Phantom Assassin
Beastmaster
BeastmasterJeimari
58% · 112 games43% · 172 games
PuckTaO
Puck
Lion
LionZxca
41% · 137 games54% · 60 games
TidehunterGreedy
Tidehunter
44% · 29 games
Linad1smar
Lina
49% · 48 games
Abaddonc4t
Abaddon
Game 2prediction correct25:8
Omega Gaming 52%Gorillaz-Pride 48%
The model gave 52% on Omega Gaming — the game was taken by Omega Gaming in 34:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracJeimari
31% · 13 games75% · 8 games
MedusaArgius
Medusa
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidMingatte
little data57% · 6 games
PugnaTaO
Pugna
Dark Willow
Dark WillowZxca
33% · 7 games71% · 3 games
Legion CommanderGreedy
Legion Commander
little data
Treant Protectorc4t
Treant Protector
71% · 3 games
Linad1smar
Lina
Model check result
Model favoriteOmega Gaming · 57%
Series resultOmega Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2