Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Южная Америка 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
EgoBoyswin 2:0series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 2:0
CCrewmatesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
EgoBoys
No games played over 6 months.
Crewmates
Abaddon
DFlash · 5 games
Leshracoften banned
H1j4ck · 4 games
Iooften banned
FCR · 3 games
Nature's Prophetoften banned
H1j4ck · 3 games
Undying
DFlash · 3 games
Void Spiritoften banned
4nalog · 3 games
Arc Wardenoften banned
FCR · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
4nalog · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
425 picks · 964 bans
Void Spirit
391 picks · 553 bans
Death Prophet
355 picks · 707 bans
Mars
338 picks · 572 bans
Grimstroke
314 picks · 299 bans
Earth Spirit
296 picks · 286 bans
Tusk
295 picks · 209 bans
Lion
266 picks · 141 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 45%
Hero pool strength51% EgoBoys
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% EgoBoys
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed13:29
EgoBoys 56%Crewmates 44%
The model gave 56% on EgoBoys — the game was taken by Crewmates in 33:51.
Game 2prediction missed11:40
EgoBoys 56%Crewmates 44%
The model gave 56% on EgoBoys — the game was taken by Crewmates in 34:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteEgoBoys · 56%
Series resultEgoBoys 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game0 of 2