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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
strongboysloss 0:2
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Pipsqueak+4win 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

strongboys

Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Lowskill · 8 games
63%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Ponlo · 8 games
63%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Stojkov · 7 games
86%
Muerta
Muertasignature
Ponlo · 7 games
86%
Marci
Marcisignature
ChodΣX · 6 games
83%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
Tobi · 6 games
50%
Timbersaw
Timbersawoften banned
ChodΣX · 5 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Stojkov · 5 games
80%

Pipsqueak+4

Warlock
Warlock
Kidaro · 47 games
43%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Palantimos · 39 games
62%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Kidaro · 38 games
63%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Copy · 32 games
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
xn丶e · 31 game
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Nande · 31 game
45%
Batrider
Batridersignature
Ekki · 30 games
63%
Tusk
Tusk
Ekki · 30 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
562 picks · 916 bans
49%
Tusk
Tusk
534 picks · 406 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
485 picks · 658 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
484 picks · 620 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
417 picks · 889 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
380 picks · 615 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
366 picks · 511 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
360 picks · 217 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 56%
Hero pool strength55% strongboys
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total59% Pipsqueak+4
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:37
strongboys 44%Pipsqueak+4 56%
The model gave 56% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 47:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendLowskill
57% · 189 games45% · 356 games
Storm SpiritCopy
Storm Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawChodΣX
57% · 262 games57% · 74 games
ClinkzDarkLord^
Clinkz
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritStojkov
50% · 542 games41% · 103 games
UnderlordPalantimos
Underlord
Venomancer
VenomancerTobi
62% · 46 games44% · 405 games
TinyEkki
Tiny
Windranger
WindrangerPonlo
47% · 299 games45% · 400 games
Jakiroaik
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct23:31
strongboys 44%Pipsqueak+4 56%
The model gave 56% on Pipsqueak+4 — the game was taken by Pipsqueak+4 in 43:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterLowskill
48% · 187 games55% · 73 games
ClinkzDarkLord^
Clinkz
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainStojkov
45% · 146 games53% · 85 games
RazorCopy
Razor
Timbersaw
TimbersawChodΣX
53% · 131 game47% · 341 game
MarsPalantimos
Mars
Muerta
MuertaPonlo
50% · 100 games54% · 316 games
Shadow DemonEkki
Shadow Demon
Jakiro
JakiroTobi
43% · 281 game53% · 30 games
Omniknightaik
Omniknight
Model check result
Model favoritePipsqueak+4 · 59%
Series resultPipsqueak+4 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2